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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-10-05 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050850 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO RIO LAGARTOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 83.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 83.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N 89.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 39.5N 79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 83.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 4
2017-10-05 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050850 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 83.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch westward along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to Rio Lagartos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 83.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A north- northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin later today and continue through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could strengthen to a tropical storm before it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua today. Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras and Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Eastern portions of the Yucatan peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras late today and tonight. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2017-10-05 07:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 05:43:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 03:25:34 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-05 07:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Sixteen was located near 13.0, -83.0 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 3A
2017-10-05 07:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050542 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 83.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 83.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A north- northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin later today and continue through late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm before it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua. Additional strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua later this morning, and spread into Honduras late today. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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