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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-17 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 171456 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.7W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.7W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 95.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2017-10-05 10:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 08:56:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2017 08:56:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-05 10:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050851 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 Deep convection associated with the depression has increased over the eastern portion of the circulation overnight, however there has only been a slight increase in overall banding. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the depression is near tropical-storm strength, but with the center located near the western edge of the deep convection the cyclone is kept as a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory. The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to expected land interaction today, and possibly again in about 48 hours when the system passes near the Yucatan peninsula. The depression could still become a tropical storm before the center moves over northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today. After the cyclone moves north of Honduras, it will traverse the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, where the upper-level environment is also forecast to be conducive for strengthening. However, the amount of strengthening is likely to depend on the structure of the inner core after it crosses land. The intensity models have continued their downward trend, but the NHC forecast remains near the higher side of the guidance due to these favorable conditions and persistence from the previous advisory. Some additional strengthening is possible while the system moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC intensity forecast brings the system to hurricane strength within 72 hours. This is in best agreement with the SHIPS intensity model. The depression is moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward during the next day or two around the western side of a ridge the extends from near the southeastern Bahamas southwestward into the central Caribbean Sea. By the weekend, a large mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build off the coast of the southeastern United States, and this should steer the cyclone north-northwestward at a faster forward speed. After 72 hours, the system is expected to recurve around the northwestward side of the ridge. The track guidance is in better agreement this cycle with the latest runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models shifting westward, closer to the previous GFS and HWRF iterations. This has required a fairly substantial westward shift in the NHC forecast track at 72 h and beyond. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night. 2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch is in effect for a portion of this area. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.3N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 27.8N 89.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0600Z 39.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-10-05 10:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 050850 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) X(30) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 1(33) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 22(39) X(39) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 22(43) 1(44) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 20(42) X(42) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 18(50) X(50) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 11(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 17(39) 1(40) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 10(42) X(42) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) X(30) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 11(11) 28(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-05 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Sixteen was located near 13.3, -83.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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