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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

2019-10-18 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180833 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 92.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 92.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.8N 89.8W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 37.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 92.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics

2019-10-18 07:42:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 05:42:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 03:24:40 GMT

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)

2019-10-18 07:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Sixteen was located near 24.1, -93.2 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 3A

2019-10-18 07:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180542 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 93.2W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system has been been moving eastward during the past couple of hours, but is expected to resume a track to the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) later today. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance again in several hours. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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