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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-08-03 16:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 407 WTPZ25 KNHC 031444 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.2N 130.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 132.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.3N 146.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 152.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 128.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-03 10:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Aug 2018 08:52:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Aug 2018 08:52:50 GMT
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-03 10:51:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 092 WTPZ45 KNHC 030851 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 Although Hector appeared to be disrupted by moderate northeasterly shear earlier this evening, its satellite presentation is generally back on the upswing. A WindSat pass around 0213 UTC revealed that the tiny mid-level eye of the hurricane was still intact, and this feature has at times been apparent once again in longwave and shortwave IR imagery. The initial intensity has been set at 90 kt based on the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Even though the shear no longer appears to be a significant inhibiting factor, marginal sea surface temperatures and mid-level humidity could still be limiting factors for the intensity of Hector. All of the intensity guidance indicates that little change in intensity will occur over the next 24-36 hours, so only gradual strengthening is forecast. By days 2 and 3, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters once again, so some additional strengthening seems likely at that time. This scenario is supported by the dynamical intensity models, all of which depict Hector as a strong major hurricane. The statistical guidance notably shows gradual weakening during this period, so confidence in this part of the forecast is low. By 96 h, Hector is expected to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so steady weakening is forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and still favors the dynamical model solutions. The initial motion is now 270/10 kt. No significant changes have been made to the track forecast. Hector is expected to be steered westward by a large subtropical ridge for the next few days. A turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated early next week as a large deep-layer trough over the northern Pacific weakens the ridge. There is still a large amount of spread in the global models regarding the forward speed of Hector as it begins to turn west-northwestward. Despite the large spread, the consensus has not changed much, so the new NHC track forecast lies practically on top of the previous forecast, and remains close to the consensus aids HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.0N 127.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 14.0N 129.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 14.0N 131.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 13.9N 135.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 14.5N 140.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 16.5N 150.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-03 10:51:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...INTENSITY OF HECTOR FLUCTUATING... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 3 the center of Hector was located near 14.0, -127.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 11
2018-08-03 10:51:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 812 WTPZ35 KNHC 030850 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 ...INTENSITY OF HECTOR FLUCTUATING... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 127.8W ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 127.8 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast, and Hector is expected to become a major hurricane within the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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