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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-26 07:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
939 ABNT20 KNHC 260536 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A weak low pressure system located about 100 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized shower activity, mainly to the east of the center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to increase further over the system today, and the chances for tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. The low is forecast to move north-northeastward along or near the North Carolina coast later this morning, and it could produce scattered showers and dangerous surf and rip currents across eastern North Carolina as it passes by. The low is expected to move northeastward and merge with a frontal system or dissipate offshore of the New England coast on Thursday. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized in association with the remnants of Kirk located about 650 miles east of the Windward Islands. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicate that the circulation has become better defined and that the winds have increased. If this development trend continues, then advisories will be re-initiated on this system later this morning. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate this disturbance later today. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores is producing disorganized shower activity and gale-force winds. Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics on Thursday or Friday while the cyclone meanders over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-26 07:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
700 ABPZ20 KNHC 260532 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa, located about 450 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A trough of low pressure about 1300 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves westward across the central Pacific. Future information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves westward to west-northwestward well offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-26 02:26:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
955 ABNT20 KNHC 260026 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area centered about 175 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and the low has not yet developed into a tropical depression. Some additional development is possible tonight as the low moves northward near or over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina. After tonight, development appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves generally north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast tonight. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized during the last several hours, however, the system still appears to lack a closed circulation. This disturbance is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is currently centered about 950 miles southwest of the Azores Islands, and it is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-26 01:16:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
581 ABNT20 KNHC 252316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area centered about 175 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and the low has not yet developed into a tropical depression. Some additional development is possible tonight as the low moves northward near or over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina. After tonight, development appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves generally north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast tonight. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized during the last several hours, however, the system still appears to lack a closed circulation. This disturbance is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is currently centered about 950 miles southwest of the Azores Islands, and it is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-26 01:09:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
928 ABPZ20 KNHC 252309 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa, located about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A trough of low pressure located a little over 1300 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible through the end of the week while it moves westward across the central Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves westward to west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rosa are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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