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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-04 19:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Caribbean Sea, a little less than 100 miles south-southeast of eastern Jamaica. Recent satellite wind data and visible satellite imagery indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, however, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system moves over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is forecast to move near Jamaica through Monday, and then pass near the Cayman Islands early Tuesday and approach western Cuba by late Tuesday, and interests in those areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. The low is forecast to move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or Wednesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic have become limited today. The system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and development of this system is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow development is possible during the next couple of days before it encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-04 19:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 041739 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located in the western region of the basin. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little since yesterday in association with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Thereafter, development, if any, should be slow to occur while it drifts northward offshore of the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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weather
pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-04 13:29:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 041129 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located in the western region of the basin. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little during the past several hours in association with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure could form south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward offshore of the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-04 13:28:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041128 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located over the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles southeast of Jamaica. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two. The system should move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea today through Tuesday, and then move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic. This system has not become any better organized, and any development during the next day or so should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development is not expected beyond that time due to the system moving into a region of strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow development is possible during the next couple of days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-04 07:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 040549 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system is located over the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles southeast of Jamaica. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system should move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea today and Monday, and then move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development is not expected beyond that time due to the system moving into a region of strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow development is possible during the next couple of days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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