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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 07:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110554 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over Newfoundland, Canada. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. Some development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 07:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 110537 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Olaf, located less than 100 miles west of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. A broad area of low pressure developing a couple of hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for some development of this system if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 01:47:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102347 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of Newfoundland, Canada. The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A strong tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 01:29:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102329 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Olaf, located just off the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a couple of hundred miles of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico are associated with the southern portion of an approaching tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave to the south of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northwestward near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-10 19:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 101736 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Olaf, located near the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a couple of hundred miles of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico are associated with the southern portion of an approaching tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave to the south of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northwestward near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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