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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 13:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
415 ABNT20 KNHC 121142 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later this morning or this afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the system this morning. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. This disturbance could bring locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 13:30:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121130 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located near the southeastern coast of Mexico just east of Puerto Angel is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Further development of this system is becoming less likely now that the low is interacting with land. However, a tropical depression could still form if the system moves westward away from the coast of Mexico during the next day or two. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 07:29:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120529 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico have been increasing during the past several hours near and east of a surface trough of low pressure. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning, and potential tropical cyclone advisories could be initiated later today. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, including the western Yucatan Peninsula, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coasts through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. This disturbance could bring locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern Bahamas in a few days resulting from the northern end of a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 07:17:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 120517 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as long as it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form tomorrow or early Monday while the system moves northwestward toward the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Further development is not expected by midweek due to interaction with land. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 02:06:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120005 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Corrected to change the order of the system northeast of the Azores. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development will be possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. Regardless of development, this disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico, including the western Yucatan Peninsula, through tonight which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late Sunday, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat then continuing across those coasts through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still form this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. By the middle of next week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could from by the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form near the southeastern Bahamas in a few days resulting from moisture by a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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