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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-07 07:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 070532 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to show some signs of organization. Although recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation remains broad, environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, outer rainbands from the disturbance are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A small low pressure area located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system is likely to be slow over the next day or two while it drifts northward. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-07 07:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 070532 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic about 900 miles southeast of Bermuda. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and the south-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but they are forecast to become marginally conducive for some limited development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some tropical or subtropical development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-07 01:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
366 ABPZ20 KNHC 062333 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, outer rainbands will produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco for the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system is likely to be slow over the next couple of days while it drifts northward. By late this week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-07 01:28:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 062328 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic more than 900 miles southeast of Bermuda. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is forecast to move slowly northward or northeastward over the central and then northeastern Gulf of Mexico, likely reaching the northern Gulf coast in a few days. Although upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development to occur, they are expected to become marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation in a couple of days. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States beginning midweek, and some development will be possible once it emerges over the Atlantic waters late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-06 19:31:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 061731 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized this morning in association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow over the next couple of days while it drifts northward. By late this week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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