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Remnants of Isaac Public Advisory Number 31
2018-09-15 10:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 550 WTNT34 KNHC 150840 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Isaac Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATES ISAAC HAS DISSIPATED... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 70.8W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Isaac were located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 70.8 West. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants of Isaac will likely continue to produce gusty winds and occasional heavy rains while moving westward across the central and western Caribbean during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the south-central portion of the Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and most of Jamaica. This rainfall, especially in mountainous terrain, may cause life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Remnants of Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 31
2018-09-15 10:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 482 WTNT24 KNHC 150840 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 70.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 70.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-15 04:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 02:40:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 03:34:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 30
2018-09-15 04:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 956 WTNT44 KNHC 150238 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Isaac has rapidly lost organization since the last advisory. The cyclone has been devoid of any deep convection for most of the evening, with only a small burst recently forming well to the west of where Isaac's low-level center is believed to be located. While it is possible, if not likely, that the maximum winds have decreased a little since this afternoon due to the lack of convection, the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft data. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Isaac again overnight and will provide a better estimate of the strength and status of Isaac. The global models continue to insist that Isaac could open into a trough at any time, and based on the current state of the cyclone, this could be imminent. The regional hurricane models, however, show the development of one or more mesoscale lows embedded within a larger cyclonic envelope that cause Isaac to persist for at least a few more days in those models. While the global model solution still seems more likely, I can't rule out that Isaac will persist a little longer, so the NHC forecast still carries a 72 h forecast point. Regardless of whether Isaac is a tropical storm or a tropical wave over the next few days, heavy rains and occasional gusty winds are still likely across much of the Greater Antilles through the next couple of days. It has been very difficult to try to pinpoint a low-level center of Isaac over the past few hours, but based on microwave data it appears to still be moving west at about 13 kt. The GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement and show Isaac, or its remnants, moving steadily westward for the next several days. The regional models on the other hand show a farther north motion, in part due to one or more reformations of the center. The NHC forecast continues to favor the global model solutions and is on the south side of the guidance envelope, however if it becomes clear that Isaac will survive longer, a northward adjustment may be required in later advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.4N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 16.2N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 16.7N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 18.7N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-15 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC QUICKLY LOSING ORGANIZATION AGAIN... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Isaac was located near 15.4, -69.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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