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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 24A
2018-09-13 19:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 123 WTNT34 KNHC 131746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 200 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...ISAAC BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 62.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin, and the government of St. Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Barbuda * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located by satellite images near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 62.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward track with a slower forward motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac should move farther away from Lesser Antilles today, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days as Isaac moves through the Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 to 10 inches over Dominica. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches over elevated terrain are forecast across Martinique and Guadeloupe. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast across southeastern Puerto Rico, while totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring within portions of the warning area and should continue through the afternoon hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-13 16:56:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Isaac was located near 14.9, -61.8 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 24
2018-09-13 16:56:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 936 WTNT34 KNHC 131456 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 24...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Corrected for Puerto Rico rainfall in the Hazards section ...ISAAC NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 61.8W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Barbuda * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 61.8 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward track with a slower forward motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac should move farther away from Lesser Antilles today, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next several hours as Isaac moves through the Leeward Islands. Gradual weakening is forecast after that as Isaac moves through the eastern Caribbean. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 to 10 inches over Dominica. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches over elevated terrain are forecast across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are forecast across southeastern Puerto Rico, while totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring within portions of the warning area and should continue through the afternoon hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-13 16:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 14:41:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 14:41:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-09-13 16:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 764 WTNT44 KNHC 131441 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Satellite imagery indicate that Isaac remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone, with the low-level center mostly exposed during the past several hours. The center of Isaac passed between Dominica and Martinique around 1300 UTC, with westerly winds reported on both St. Lucia and Martinique, indicating that Isaac is still a tropical storm. Data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum winds remain near 40 kt, although the area of tropical- storm-force winds has shrunk since yesterday. 1200 UTC radiosonde data from the eastern Caribbean and Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the circulation of Isaac is fairly shallow and small. It is entirely possible that Isaac will degenerate into a tropical wave during the next day or two due to the continued effects of strong shear. However, the environment becomes much more conducive for increased organization in a few days when the cyclone, or its remnants, moves across the west-central Caribbean Sea. Model guidance is not consistent at all on whether Isaac will survive as a tropical cyclone, which frankly might not be a very predictable event given the initial uncertainties. The best course of action is to let the full 1200 UTC guidance suite ingest all of the latest radiosonde and other data before making any changes, so this advisory holds the status quo for now. Isaac is moving a little south-of-west and a bit faster, since it was devoid of convection most of night, at about 265/17. A mid-level ridge is forecast to persist over the southwestern Atlantic, steering Isaac westward for the next few days. The track forecast is fairly dependent on the intensity forecast, since a deeper tropical cyclone will move slower due to slightly weaker winds in the middle part of the atmosphere. The forecast has been too slow so far, and with the current forecast showing little strengthening, the official track prediction is shifted west of the previous one, close to the NOAA corrected consensus aid. At the end of the forecast, if Isaac remains a tropical cyclone, it could start moving more toward the west-northwest, but I would place little emphasis on the 96-hour point until we get a better handle on the future structure of Isaac. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles into this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. 2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, and St. Martin. Tropical storm conditions are possible on these islands today and interests on those islands should follow any advice given by their local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 14.9N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 14.9N 69.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 15.0N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 15.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 17.0N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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