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Tropical Depression Isaac Public Advisory Number 27
2018-09-14 10:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 065 WTNT34 KNHC 140831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 65.5W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 65.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches across the northern Windward Islands into the Leeward islands, and southeastern Puerto Rico. Totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic and Haiti. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-14 04:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 02:37:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 03:34:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-09-14 04:37:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 073 WTNT44 KNHC 140237 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 A burst of deep convection has developed and covered the previously exposed center of Isaac this evening. However, there is still evidence of northwesterly shear over the cyclone as there is a rather sharp edge to the convective mass and the cirrus is quickly blowing off toward the southeast. A recent ASCAT pass shows that the circulation is not particularly well defined, but it did show some light west or west-southwesterly winds, enough to keep the system classified as a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT also revealed winds of 30-32 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which is also an average of the latest Dvorak current intensity numbers. Moderate to strong northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to cause Isaac to weaken to a tropical depression or even become an open wave within the next day or so. When Isaac reaches the west-central Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, the shear may relax somewhat and the global models suggest that there will be an increase in mid-level moisture. These conditions could allow for regeneration of the system, but given the uncertainty in whether Isaac will survive long enough to take advantage of these conditions, the official forecast still calls for dissipation like most of the guidance. Isaac continues moving westward at about 14 kt. The system should move generally westward over the next couple of days as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Later in the period, the models show that Isaac could gain some latitude, but the official forecast is along the southern side of the guidance since a weaker system is likely to move more westward. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.9N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 15.0N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 16.3N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 17.7N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2018-09-14 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 812 FONT14 KNHC 140236 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-14 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Isaac was located near 14.9, -64.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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