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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)

2018-09-14 22:48:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Isaac was located near 15.3, -68.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 29

2018-09-14 22:48:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 091 WTNT34 KNHC 142048 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 68.2W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of Isaac. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 68.2 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days with a turn to the west-northwest possible by late Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, and be near or south of Jamaica early next week. NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Isaac is forecast to become a tropical depression on Sunday and degenerate into a wave on Monday. However this is an uncertain prediction. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from dropsonde data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south- central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and most of Jamaica except for the eastern portion of Jamaica where rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches and maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2018-09-14 22:48:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 074 FONT14 KNHC 142048 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 29

2018-09-14 22:47:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 930 WTNT24 KNHC 142047 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 68.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 68.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 67.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 68.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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