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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-03 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 283 WTNT22 KNHC 030841 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 80.2W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 80.2W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.7N 82.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.2N 84.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.4N 89.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 35.5N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 80.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072018)
2018-09-03 07:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Seven was located near 24.0, -79.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 2A
2018-09-03 07:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 288 WTNT32 KNHC 030532 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 79.4W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 79.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by this evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical cyclone by tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...1 to 2 ft. Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flooding. The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be possible today across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-09-03 06:05:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 04:05:35 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2018-09-03 05:22:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 03:22:25 GMT
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