je.st
news
Tag: potential
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT FORMED YET BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 31 the center of Six was located near 13.7, -22.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
potential
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-31 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 175 WTNT31 KNHC 311437 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 ...A TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT FORMED YET BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 22.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 22.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next three to four days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Saturday. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
potential
advisory
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-31 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 176 WTNT41 KNHC 311437 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 The circulation is better defined this morning, but the associated convection is rather weak. In fact, Dvorak numbers have not changed overall, and do not support classifying the system as a tropical cyclone yet. It seems like both NHC and the global models predicted the development of a cyclone too soon. Nevertheless, the environmental conditions are favorable for both genesis and strengthening, and a tropical depression or a storm is expected to form later today or Saturday. The shear does not appear to be a problem at this time, but the cyclone should be moving over marginal SSTs, limiting the amount of intensification. The HWRF model changed its tune to a more reasonable one, and it now shows more modest strengthening. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and continues to be very close to the intensity consensus. The disturbance is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 11 kt. The subtropical high should continue to steer the system toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the ridge will induce a more northwestward track over the open Atlantic Ocean. This is supported by the track guidance which continues to be in very good agreement for the next 3 days. Thereafter, the guidance envelope widens and becomes bounded by the westernmost ECMWF and the easternmost GFS models decreasing the confidence in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.7N 22.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/0000Z 14.1N 24.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 01/1200Z 14.8N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.5N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 16.2N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.5N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 22.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
potential
tropical
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-08-31 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 129 FONT11 KNHC 311437 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PRAIA CVI 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
potential
speed
wind
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-08-31 16:37:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 058 WTNT21 KNHC 311436 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 22.7W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 22.7W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 22.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.1N 24.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 27.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 29.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.2N 32.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 22.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
potential
advisory
tropical
Sites : [197] [198] [199] [200] [201] [202] [203] [204] [205] [206] [207] [208] [209] [210] [211] [212] [213] [214] [215] [216] next »