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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 07:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Aug 31 the center of Six was located near 13.4, -21.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 3A
2018-08-31 07:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 815 WTNT31 KNHC 310538 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 21.2W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 21.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the disturbance or the tropical cyclone is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2018-08-31 04:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 02:42:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 03:22:06 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-31 04:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 870 WTNT41 KNHC 310240 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized. However, the convection is not yet well enough organized to call the system a tropical cyclone, and recent scatterometer data show that the system still lacks a well-defined center of circulation. The scatterometer did indicate winds of 25-30 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt. The system should be in an environment of light to moderate easterly vertical shear for the next three to four days. Sea surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track during this time, though, reaching 26C by 72-96 h. The intensity guidance suggests that the system should at least slowly develop despite the falling SSTs, and based on this the new intensity forecast calls for it to become a tropical depression in about 12 h, a tropical storm in 12-24 h, and a hurricane near the 96-h point. While the system is expected to reach warmer SSTs near the end of the forecast period, it is also expected to encounter westerly shear at that time, which should limit additional intensification. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/11. The trade winds on the south side of the subtropical ridge should steer the system west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days, passing near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands Friday or Friday night. Near the end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest is forecast as the system approaches a weakness in the ridge. The new track forecast is again little changed from the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models. It should be noted that some adjustments to the early parts of the forecast track may occur until the center becomes better defined. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/1200Z 13.7N 22.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 01/0000Z 14.5N 24.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 15.3N 27.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 16.0N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.5N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 21.5N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 04:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 30 the center of Six was located near 13.2, -20.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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