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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2018-09-03 05:11:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 03:11:20 GMT

Tags: map potential storm tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Graphics

2018-09-03 04:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 02:54:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 03:28:23 GMT

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-09-03 04:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 235 WTNT42 KNHC 030252 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 There has been little change in the organization of the disturbance since the previous advisory. Satellite imagery shows that some new convective bands have formed to the northeast of the trough axis, but there is still no evidence of a closed surface circulation at this time. The initial intensity remains 25 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent surface observations. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday to give a better assessment of the structure and intensity of the system. The disturbance will be moving over warm waters and within an area of generally low vertical wind shear. These conditions should allow gradual development of the system over the next day or so. The global model guidance indicates that the surface trough will sharpen and that a closed surface circulation is likely to develop in association with the system over the Gulf of Mexico within the next 24-36 hours. Once this occurs, the system is expected to continue to gradually strengthen until it reaches the north-central Gulf coast Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The intensity guidance did not change much this cycle and neither has the latest official forecast. The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that is centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. On this heading, the disturbance is expected to pass over the Florida Keys or the southern Florida peninsula tomorrow morning, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night before approaching the north-central Gulf coast late Tuesday or Tuesday night. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, however, since the system is still in the pre-genesis phase future changes regarding the exact track and timing of the onset of hazards are possible. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. 2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor products from their local National Weather Service office. 3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential tropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 23.4N 78.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1200Z 24.5N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 25.9N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 27.5N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 28.8N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 31.7N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0000Z 33.2N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0000Z 34.2N 95.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2018-09-03 04:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 854 FONT12 KNHC 030252 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 15(15) 33(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) X(24) X(24) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) X(36) X(36) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20(37) X(37) 1(38) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) 1(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) 1(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) 1(29) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) 1(23) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 1(16) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number potential speed wind

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072018)

2018-09-03 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 the center of Seven was located near 23.4, -78.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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