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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-12 13:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 11:56:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:39:38 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-12 13:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION NEAR EXTREME SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 the center of Nineteen was located near 25.6, -81.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-09-12 13:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 151 WTNT34 KNHC 121154 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...DEPRESSION NEAR EXTREME SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 81.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and gradually intensify Sunday and Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical- storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across west-central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, through Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through Tuesday morning. This rainfall could produce scattered flash flooding. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-12 11:04:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:04:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:04:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-12 11:03:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 958 WTNT44 KNHC 120903 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Tropical Depression Nineteen was close to tropical storm strength when it moved ashore in Miami-Dade county just after 06Z. The central pressure had dropped to near 1004 mb, and the radar showed winds of 45-50 kt above the surface just to the northeast of the center, associated with a strong convective burst. However, there were no surface observations of 35-kt sustained winds, and the highest reported gusts were in the 35-40 kt range. Based on the available data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. It should be noted that since landfall, the strong convective burst near the low-level center has weakened considerably. The cyclone has turned left during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/8 kt. The subtropical ridge extending from the southeastern United States eastward over the Atlantic should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through Sunday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken due to an approaching mid-latitude trough. This should result in a northwestward motion through from Sunday night into the middle portion of next week, with the cyclone expected to reach the northern Gulf coast around the 96 h point. The latest track guidance now has the cyclone responding more strongly to the trough and turning northward by 120 h. The new forecast track is shifted a little south of the previous track through 72 h based on the initial position and motion. At 120 h, the new track is nudged to the east of the old track, but it still lies to the west of the consensus models. The depression is currently experiencing some northerly vertical wind shear, and the latest global model runs are showing more shear affecting the system as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico than earlier. However, since the cyclone is going to be over very warm sea surface temperatures and in a moist environment, the intensity guidance still shows it strengthening to near hurricane strength, or stronger, before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. Due to the uncertainty about the amount of shear, the new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. However, it lies below the various intensity consensus models. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce isolated to scattered flash flooding across portions of west-central and southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across Central Florida through Sunday. Scattered flash flooding is also possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through Tuesday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Sunday night in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur over portions of the southern Florida Peninsula today. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana late this weekend and early next week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 25.6N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 12/1800Z 26.1N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 13/0600Z 26.9N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 27.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 28.7N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 29.3N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 29.6N 88.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/0600Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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