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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-12 07:48:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 the center of Nineteen was located near 25.7, -80.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-12 04:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 02:44:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 02:44:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-12 04:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120243 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Doppler radar data from Miami and satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming better organized. The low-level center is estimated to be near the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection due to some northerly wind shear. Surface observations and satellite classifications support holding the initial intensity at 30 kt. The minimum pressure appears to be a little lower than before, now 1007 mb. The tropical depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A subtropical ridge extending from the southeast U.S. to the western Atlantic should steer the depression west-northwestward across south Florida tonight and Saturday morning and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken due to an approaching trough, but the trough is not expected to be strong enough to cause the cyclone to turn northward. Instead, the models suggest that a slow west-northwestward motion very near the northern Gulf coast is likely during the early and middle portions of next week. Although the models all show a relatively similar scenario, there is a fair amount of spread by the time the system nears the northern Gulf coast. The NHC track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the consensus aids. Several of the local National Weather Service forecast offices across the southeast U.S. will be launching weather balloons four times per day, which should provide the models with excellent data in hopes to provide better track guidance during the next couple of days. Since the depression is expected to move over very warm SSTs, once it reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, and remain in an environment of low wind shear and high moisture, gradual strengthening seems likely. The models suggest that there could be an increase in westerly shear around the time the cyclone is forecast to move inland along the northern Gulf coast in about 4 days. Based on these expected environmental conditions, strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the IVCN and HCCA models. The depression will likely be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible overnight and early Saturday along the southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Sunday night in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana late this weekend and early next week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 25.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 26.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 26.8N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 27.9N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 28.8N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 29.3N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 29.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 30.2N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/0000Z 31.3N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-12 04:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 the center of Nineteen was located near 25.7, -79.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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nineteen
Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-12 04:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 120243 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 6 11(17) 1(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 4 14(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) VENICE FL 34 2 25(27) 5(32) 1(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) VENICE FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 10(11) 8(19) 1(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 5(21) 1(22) 1(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) 12(41) 2(43) 1(44) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 19(39) 10(49) 1(50) 1(51) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 14(42) 3(45) 1(46) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 5(26) 2(28) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 5(24) 2(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 5(27) 3(30) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 21(46) 5(51) 2(53) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) 1(20) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 8(25) 4(29) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 6(30) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 7(28) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 7(28) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 8(26) 4(30) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 8(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 5(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 26(42) 6(48) 2(50) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 2(17) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 23(28) 9(37) 5(42) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 3(14) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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