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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-11 22:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 112055 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 79.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 79.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 80.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.2N 81.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.3N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 28.4N 85.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 87.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2017-11-06 21:37:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2017 20:37:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2017 21:26:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-11-06 21:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062031 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 The depression has changed little in structure during the past several hours. The low-level center remains exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection due to the influence of westerly shear and dry air. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak classification of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB. Satellite fixes indicate that the system has been moving slowly and erratically during the past 6 to 12 hours. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 020/5 kt. The combined influences of a mid-level ridge to the east of the depression and a shortwave trough to its west should cause the system to move progressively faster toward the north or north-northeast during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, an even faster northeastward motion is expected when the system becomes embedded in the mid- latitude westerlies. The latest track guidance is notably slower than the previous cycles, and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of moderate westerly shear while it moves toward cooler waters. Although these conditions typically would not favor strengthening, the models do show the depression deepening during the next couple of days, likely due to some baroclinic forcing and the expected increase in forward speed of the system. The cyclone will likely complete extratropical transition Wednesday night or early Thursday when it merges with a cold front. Overall the intensity guidance has changed little this cycle, and no change was made to the previous NHC intensity prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 29.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 34.2N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 37.6N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 41.1N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 48.8N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z 56.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-06 21:31:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Nov 6 the center of Nineteen was located near 29.9, -50.0 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 3
2017-11-06 21:31:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 50.0W ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 50.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A significantly faster north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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