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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-12 17:03:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:03:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:03:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-12 16:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 121459 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 23 X(23) 1(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 13 5(18) 2(20) 1(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) TAMPA FL 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) APALACHICOLA 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 9(30) 6(36) 3(39) 1(40) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 6( 7) 27(34) 8(42) 4(46) 2(48) 1(49) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 15(34) 8(42) 3(45) 2(47) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 11(24) 4(28) 2(30) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 4(18) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 14(25) 6(31) 2(33) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) 6(35) 2(37) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 38(41) 26(67) 8(75) 2(77) 1(78) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 7(34) 1(35) 1(36) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 23(36) 8(44) 3(47) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 26(39) 8(47) 5(52) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 3(18) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 26(36) 9(45) 5(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 3(18) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 26(40) 8(48) 5(53) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 3(19) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 23(33) 16(49) 6(55) 3(58) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 4(20) 3(23) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 6(29) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 12(40) 5(45) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 3(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) 9(32) 5(37) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 12(28) 6(34) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 11(29) 6(35) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 5(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 6(26) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 6(27) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 4(19) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 5(16) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 5(21) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 28(42) 15(57) 5(62) 1(63) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 1(20) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 25(55) 7(62) 2(64) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 4(25) 3(28) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-12 16:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 the center of Nineteen was located near 25.6, -81.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-12 16:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 121459 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES, AND STORM SURGE WATCHES, COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.5W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.5W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.1N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 86.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 87.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.8N 89.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 30.6N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 81.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-12 16:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121459 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 81.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and continue to intensify Sunday and Monday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical- storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. The depression is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana Sunday and 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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