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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-13 04:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 02:36:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 03:38:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-13 04:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 02:36:18 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-13 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 the center of Sally was located near 26.3, -82.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-13 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 82.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 82.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will investigate Sally overnight. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported in Key West, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch areas by Monday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across the lower Florida Keys overnight. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible over southern Florida and the Florida Keys through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected along the west coast of Florida through Sunday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches over the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into the middle of next week, with 3 to 6 inch rainfall amounts possible over inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system that will continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban, and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado is possible tonight along the south Florida Gulf Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-13 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 130234 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NAPLES FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 6(19) 4(23) 2(25) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) 4(18) 5(23) 4(27) 1(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 8(23) 5(28) 1(29) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 9(19) 7(26) 3(29) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 8(23) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 14(22) 4(26) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 9(31) 3(34) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 15(28) 8(36) 3(39) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 8( 8) 48(56) 11(67) 5(72) 1(73) 1(74) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 10(30) 3(33) 1(34) 1(35) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 22(39) 10(49) 3(52) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 3(18) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 26(50) 9(59) 3(62) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 7(25) 2(27) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 27(48) 11(59) 3(62) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 8(28) 1(29) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 22(58) 9(67) 2(69) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) 5(31) 1(32) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 26(55) 14(69) 3(72) 1(73) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 12(36) 3(39) X(39) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 22(34) 4(38) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 30(47) 12(59) 3(62) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) 2(27) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 17(35) 9(44) 1(45) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 21(28) 14(42) 2(44) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 1(15) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 22(31) 13(44) 2(46) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 2(24) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 13(29) 3(32) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 13(32) 2(34) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 2(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 1(17) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 1(20) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 19(33) 14(47) 7(54) 1(55) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 1(17) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 30(40) 20(60) 8(68) 1(69) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) 5(32) 3(35) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 1(14) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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