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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-13 11:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130940 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CORRECTED FOR INLAND STATUS AT 60 AND 72 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA NORTHEAST TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 84.0W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 84.0W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 84.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics

2020-09-13 11:11:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:11:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:39:44 GMT

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Tropical Storm Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-09-13 10:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 08:56:36 GMT

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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2020-09-13 10:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 130854 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) APALACHICOLA 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) 1(22) GFMX 290N 850W 34 10 14(24) 4(28) 2(30) 3(33) X(33) 1(34) GFMX 290N 850W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 9(10) 7(17) 4(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 7(20) 2(22) 1(23) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 4(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 3(20) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 10(25) 3(28) 1(29) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 10(29) 2(31) 1(32) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 67(68) 14(82) 2(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 29(29) 13(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 14(44) 2(46) 1(47) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 27(47) 13(60) 2(62) 1(63) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) 2(24) X(24) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 32(50) 15(65) 3(68) X(68) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 13(29) 2(31) 1(32) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) 1(11) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 41(43) 27(70) 8(78) 1(79) X(79) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 7(42) 2(44) X(44) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 11(12) 49(61) 13(74) 3(77) 1(78) X(78) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 27(28) 13(41) 5(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 21(29) 7(36) 1(37) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 35(51) 16(67) 4(71) X(71) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) 2(36) X(36) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 21(38) 10(48) 3(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 21(47) 5(52) 1(53) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 27(36) 15(51) 5(56) X(56) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 2(24) X(24) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 4(23) 1(24) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 18(33) 5(38) X(38) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 17(36) 4(40) 1(41) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 1(14) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 2(20) 1(21) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 1(19) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 4(23) X(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 10(11) 24(35) 10(45) 6(51) 1(52) 1(53) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) KEESLER AB 34 1 4( 5) 35(40) 22(62) 9(71) 1(72) 1(73) KEESLER AB 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 7(28) 1(29) 1(30) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)

2020-09-13 10:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SALLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Sally was located near 27.0, -84.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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