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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-25 03:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 02:35:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 03:24:56 GMT
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-25 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250234 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon has become a little less organized during the past couple of hours. The hurricane is still producing inner-core convection, but cloud tops have gradually warmed, and the overall cloud pattern has become asymmetric once again. ASCAT-A data from just after 00Z showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt southeast of Epsilon's center. The intensity of the hurricane is therefore set at 65 kt, assuming a little undersampling from the ASCAT instrument. The wind radii analysis was also updated based on the ASCAT data. The hurricane is currently located over relatively warm waters associated with the Gulf Stream. Epsilon is forecast to remain over the Gulf Stream for at least another 12 hours, and should maintain its tropical structure during that time. The cyclone is forecast to move over much cooler water by Sunday afternoon and this should cause it to quickly become post-tropical. Gradual weakening is expected through this period, but the global models indicate that Epsilon will continue to produce a very large area of gale-force winds and maximum winds near hurricane strength even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then expected to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week. The hurricane is accelerating northeastward and should continue to gain forward speed in that general direction for the next day or so. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which is based on a blend of TVCA and HCCA. All of the typically reliable track models show the same evolution, so confidence in the track forecast remains high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 41.3N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-10-25 03:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 250233 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 6 53(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ILE ST PIERRE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-25 03:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 24 the center of Epsilon was located near 41.3, -56.1 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 25
2020-10-25 03:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 ...EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.3N 56.1W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 41.3 North, longitude 56.1 West. Epsilon is accelerating toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). Continued acceleration in that direction is expected for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is possible through the weekend, but Epsilon is expected to remain a large and powerful system even after it becomes post-tropical on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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