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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-23 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 253 WTNT42 KNHC 230232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but recently has become less defined. The system has a somewhat ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion of the system. The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Epsilon should be passing near a modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone for the next few days. By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical transition over the north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher latitudes. Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or at about 345/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to move mainly northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during the next couple of days. By around 48 hours, Epsilon should turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one, and is very close to the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction. The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus radii guidance, RVCN. Key Messages: 1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm Warning for that island has been discontinued. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 32.6N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-10-23 04:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 230232 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 12 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-23 04:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 22 the center of Epsilon was located near 32.6, -61.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 17
2020-10-23 04:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...EPSILON PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 61.6W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 61.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally northward motion with increasing forward speed is expected through early Saturday, with an even faster motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon will be moving away from Bermuda overnight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for the next day or two before gradual weakening begins by late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-23 04:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230231 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 560SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 10NW. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 280SE 260SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 30NW. 34 KT...250NE 310SE 300SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 140SE 140SW 30NW. 34 KT...320NE 360SE 360SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 61.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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