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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-23 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 23 the center of Epsilon was located near 34.1, -61.6 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 19
2020-10-23 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231449 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 ...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 61.6W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 61.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northward motion with increasing forward speed is expected through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast early next week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sunday. Epsilon remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-10-23 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231449 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 61.6W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......220NE 220SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 61.6W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 150SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 250SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 160SE 130SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 360SE 340SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 120SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...290NE 390SE 410SW 340NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 150SW 100NW. 34 KT...320NE 390SE 570SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 61.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN
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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-23 10:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 08:40:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 09:24:43 GMT
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-23 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230838 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Although Epsilon is moving over 25.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), the hurricane has continued to generate deep convection around the small 15-nmi-wide eye. Upper-level outflow also remains impressive in all quadrants, but especially in the northern semicircle where a pronounced poleward outflow channel has become established. The initial intensity remains at 75 kt based on a Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB yielding a Current Intensity (CI) number of T4.5/77 kt. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were expanded based on recent ASCAT scatterometer wind data between 0100-0300 UTC. Epsilon is now moving northward, or 360/07 kt. The hurricane is forecast to continue moving northward today around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located east of the cyclone. On Saturday, Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated frontal system that will be moving off the U.S. east coast on Sunday. That motion will take Epsilon over increasingly cooler SSTs as low as 20 deg C by Sunday morning, resulting in extratropical transition by 60 h, if not sooner. The new NHC official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected- consensus models. The current relatively low southerly vertical wind shear of about 10 kt is forecast to gradually increase to more than 20 kt by this evening. Although Epsilon will be moving over a modestly warm oceanic eddy today, which could result in some brief restrengthening of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast calls for the intensity to remain steady for the next 36 h, followed by slow weakening thereafter due to the hurricane moving over near-20 deg C SSTs by 48 hours. By 60 hours, the global models and the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicate that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical transition over the far north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models continue to show Epsilon getting absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone at the higher latitudes, resulting in a very powerful low developing with a central pressure near 940 mb. That low then moves eastward, possibly menacing northern Europe by the middle of next week. The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus radii guidance, RVCN. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 33.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 36.7N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 38.8N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 46.0N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/0600Z 49.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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