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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 6
2018-10-20 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 94.3W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 94.4 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion should continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the northwest thereafter. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today and Sunday. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-10-20 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 202032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P ANGEL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 95W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-10-20 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 202031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 94.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.7N 97.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 94.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-20 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 14:46:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 15:21:56 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-20 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 the center of Vicente was located near 14.3, -93.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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