je.st
news
Tag: vicente
Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-21 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 08:59:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 09:21:54 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
vicente
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-10-21 10:57:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210857 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes around 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined circulation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds were likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of only 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which above all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is forecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the cyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's proximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall due to the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente is expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the west-northwest on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone will come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger circulation. Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor forward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward shift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 14.3N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 14.4N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-21 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TINY VICENTE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Vicente was located near 14.5, -96.0 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
vicente
Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 8
2018-10-21 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210845 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...TINY VICENTE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 96.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 96.0 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn back toward the west is expected by this afternoon or evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Monday and Tuesday. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds only extending outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-10-21 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210845 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 13(13) 42(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 100W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Sites : [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »