je.st
news
Tag: vicente
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-20 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TINY VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 the center of Vicente was located near 14.0, -93.1 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
vicente
Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 4
2018-10-20 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...TINY VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 93.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 93.1 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning. An increase in forward speed and a turn toward the west is expected by this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the southwest later tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente will gradually move farther away from the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, Vicente is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches across portions of the Pacific coast of southeastern and southern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-10-20 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Radar data from Guatemala indicate that Vicente remains a very small but well-defined tropical cyclone, which has occasionally exhibited an eye-like feature. However, convection has waned during the past few hours, so it is difficult to accurately ascertain the intensity of such a tiny storm since small systems like this can spin up and spin down very quickly owing to minor convective fluctuations. For now, it is assumed that Vicente is still a tropical storm based on satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON; the most recent ADT value, however, was T2.2/32 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. Over the last 18 hours, it appears that Vicente's track has been doing some coastal hugging. That being said, the tropical storm is expected to turn more westward during the next 12 h and emerge over the open Gulf of Tehuantepec where a modest gap wind event is forecast to turn the cyclone southwestward by this evening. The latest 00Z model guidance is surprisingly in very good agreement on the development of this unusual track scenario. By 36-48 hours, a gradual turn toward the west is expected, followed by a motion toward the northwest on days 3-5 as the small cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located over the Gulf of Mexico and central Mexico. Assuming Vicente survives the next 96 hours, on day 5 the tropical cyclone is expected to come under the influence of the new and much larger Tropical Depression 24-E -- currently located about 700 nmi to the west -- and possibly become absorbed or forced inland over southwestern Mexico by that system. The new NHC forecast was nudged a little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus models. Vertical shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt and the mid-level moisture is expected to be high with humidity values of more than 75 percent for the next 36 hours. This should allow for some gradual strengthening to occur during that time despite Vicente's proximity to land. By 48 hours and beyond, however, northerly shear is expected to increase across the small cyclone, which should act to cap the intensification process and induce some gradual weakening by 96h. On day 5, the shear is forecast to exceed 20 kt, due in large part to the expected strong outflow from a strengthening TD-24E, resulting in significant weakening or even dissipation of Vicente. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly below the previous forecast, and lies close to an average of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models. Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions southeastern Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 14.0N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 14.1N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 13.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 12.9N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 13.1N 98.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 15.2N 101.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-10-20 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 1(20) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25(32) 3(35) X(35) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 95W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-10-20 10:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 200836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 93.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 93.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 92.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.1N 93.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.5N 95.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.9N 97.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.1N 98.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 101.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 93.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »