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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 112035 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 112035 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 15(15) 38(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 25N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-11 22:35:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 the center of Elida was located near 22.1, -115.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 213 WTPZ34 KNHC 112035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 ...ELIDA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 115.4W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 115.4 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through Wednesday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight as Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm Wednesday or Wednesday night and degenerate to a remnant low Thursday or Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-11 17:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 the center of Elida was located near 21.3, -113.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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