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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-12 16:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 121432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Elida Graphics
2020-08-12 10:39:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 08:39:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 09:31:29 GMT
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-12 10:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Satellite imagery over the past several hours shows that the deep convection associated with Elida has been shrinking in coverage, while earlier microwave data revealed that the low-level center is on the southern edge of the convection. All of the available Dvorak data-T numbers have been on the decline tonight, and there remains a large spread in the Dvorak CI numbers, ranging from about 50-75 kt. The initial advisory intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is essentially a blend of the TAFB and SAB CI numbers along with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate. Elida is now moving over water temperatures below 24C, and the cyclone is heading towards even cooler waters. In addition, the cyclone's surrounding environment is expected to become increasingly drier and more stable over the next 24 h. These factors should cause Elida to rapidly weaken over the next day or so, with the cyclone expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today. After 24 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should help to dissipate any remaining deep convection associated with Elida around that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the various consensus aids through the period of rapid weakening, and is similar to the previous forecast. Elida is now moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through today, as the cyclone moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. By tonight, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Elida to turn northwestward with some additional slowing of its forward speed. This new motion should continue until the system becomes a remnant low. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous and is near the well-clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 23.0N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-08-12 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120834 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 1 42(43) 3(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 25N 120W 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-12 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 the center of Elida was located near 23.0, -117.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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