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Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 14
2020-08-12 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120833 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 ...ELIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 117.7W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 117.7 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northwest along with some decrease in forward speed is expected to occur tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so as Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm today and degenerate to a remnant low on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-12 10:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120833 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Elida Graphics
2020-08-12 04:37:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 02:37:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 03:32:03 GMT
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-12 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120236 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed, especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation. A timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level center is located a little south of recent position estimates using visible satellite imagery. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt. The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed toward significantly cooler waters. In addition, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours. These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening over the next 24 to 36 hours. Elida is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep convection. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the various consensus aids. Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After that time, a trough located well west of southern California is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down and turn northwestward. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-08-12 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120236 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 1 33(34) 18(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 25N 120W 50 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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