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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-06-01 13:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 011132 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the southern Bay of Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the next few days. If the system remains over water, a tropical depression could form before it moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2019 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation ------------------------------------------------------------- Andrea AN-dree-uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zoh Barry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suh Chantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor Dorian DOR-ee-an Olga OAL-guh Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-lo Fernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuh Gabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien suh-BASH-chuhn Humberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuh Imelda ee-MEHL-dah Van van Jerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-dee Karen KAIR-ren One named cyclone, Andrea, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that forms this season will be Barry. This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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