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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-07-03 04:48:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030247 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Beryl this evening. Data from the aircraft suggest that Beryl hasn't weakened very much so far. Flight-level winds indicate that the intensity is still near 130 kt. Satellite- derived intensity estimates are below this value, and the eye has become a little less well-defined on the imagery. The rapid west-northwestward motion continues, at around 290/19 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Beryl should continue to steer the system on a west-northwestward heading across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days. This motion should bring the center near Jamaica in 12 to 24 hours, near the Cayman Islands in 24 to 36 hours, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 48 to 60 hours. Beyond 72 hours, when Beryl should be located over the western Gulf of Mexico, the track model spread increases. Therefore there is significant uncertainty in the 4- and 5-day forecast points, when the system encounters a weakness in the ridge. There is also considerable uncertainty in the future intensity of Beryl. Vertical shear, associated with an upper-level low near the Yucatan Channel, should increase over Beryl during the next day or so. Therefore some weakening seems likely during the next 48 hours. However, the system should maintain hurricane strength while it moves over the northwestern Caribbean. Later in the forecast period, when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico, it is not clear how much the cyclone will re-intensify, but it should at least be close to hurricane intensity around that time. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday. 3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.2N 72.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.2N 75.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.1N 78.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.3N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 20.1N 88.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 22.7N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON COAST $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-03 04:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 the center of Beryl was located near 16.2, -72.7 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 18
2024-07-03 04:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 72.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault * East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 72.7 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more toward the west Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica on Wednesday. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands Wednesday into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday into Friday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so. Swells will impact the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through midweek. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics