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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-07-06 16:57:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061457 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER-ALIGNED VERTICALLY...WITH LITTLE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE NOW OBSERVED ON THE 37/91 GHZ MICROWAVE CHANNELS. IN ADDITION...A RAGGED EYE APPEARS TO BE FORMING ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT...A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON THE TAFB FIX. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS ERICK NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE SINCE ERICK IS NOT THAT FAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TOMORROW DUE TO ERICK MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAND. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER WATERS IN THE PATH OF ERICK ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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