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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-08-06 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 225 WTPZ45 KNHC 060233 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Hector has changed little in organization since the previous special advisory, and the various satellite intensity estimates are in the 115-125 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 120 kt. The forecast track takes the cyclone over an area of cooler water between 24-60 h and into a drier air mass after 60 h, and based on this the intensity forecast continues the trend of the previous forecast in showing a gradual weakening through the forecast period. There are two caveats to this forecast, however. The first is that Hector will move over warmer water after 60 h, and the HWRF amd LGEM models are suggesting re-intensification could occur from 96-120 h. Second, the environment of light easterly shear and moderate sea surface temperatures could allow Hector to evolve into an annular hurricane, which would cause it to stay more intense than the guidance and the official forecast are indicating. The hurricane is starting a northward nudge that the track models have been advertising, and the initial motion is now 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer it west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed for the next 24-36 h, followed by a more westerly motion to the south of the Hawaiian Islands for the remainder of the forecast period. Track guidance has become less divergent since yesterday, and the new forecast track lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the Hawaiian Islands. Now is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hector. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.7N 139.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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