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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-08-29 10:52:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290852 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Jimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight with a symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrus outflow in all quadrants. The current intensity estimate is 130 kt, a blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS. While large-scale environmental factors are still favorable for further strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through an eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can cause fluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However, Jimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the next several days. A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanic and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less conducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week. The new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and the statistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight on the intensity consensus at days 3 to 5. The initial motion estimate is 270/8. Jimena's heading should become west-northwestward later today and continue in that general direction for the next several days while it moves around the subtropical ridge. As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around 140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96 hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar to the adjustment made on the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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