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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-08-29 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292032 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Recent microwave imagery continued to show Jimena's eyewall nearly enclosed by a larger outer ring of convection, signaling that concentric eyewalls may be developing. A moat region is also evident in the latest visible images. Cloud tops have gradually warmed since this morning, and Jimena appears to have weakened a little. The initial intensity is set at 120 kt based on a blend of CI numbers of 6.0/115 from TAFB, 6.5/127 kt from SAB, and 6.3/122 kt from the CIMSS ADT. Jimena may be in the early stages of an eyewall replacement, which makes the short-term intensity forecast a little tricky. The overall environment remains conducive for strengthening, so if an eyewall replacement occurs, the hurricane has an opportunity to re-intensify during the next day or so. The bottom line is that fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24-48 hours, and Jimena is expected to remain a major hurricane during that time. After 48 hours, gradual weakening is indicated in the forecast, with the most likely reason being lower oceanic heat content. The hurricane models continue to show a much faster weakening rate than the global models, and as a compromise, the updated NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the typically skillful models. This solution is closest to the SHIPS model. Jimena has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/8 kt. The subtropical ridge north of the hurricane is weakening, and Jimena is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest through day 5. However, the cyclone should slow down considerably by days 4 and 5 due to weakening steering currents. The track guidance has continued to trend faster, and the updated NHC track forecast is again a little bit ahead of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 126.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.4N 128.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 15.0N 133.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 15.6N 135.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 16.6N 139.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 17.4N 141.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 18.0N 142.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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