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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-08-30 10:49:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300848 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 The overall cloud pattern has degraded a little during the past few hours with some cooling of the eye of Jimena. Microwave data confirm the ongoing eyewall replacement, with some evidence that the inner eyewall is eroding at the expense of an outer eyewall. Satellite estimates have come down somewhat, so the initial intensity is reduced to 115 kt. The intensity forecast for the next day or so is primarily dependent on when and if the eyewall cycle completes. After considering the low-shear, warm-water environment, I will assume that Jimena will be able to complete the eyewall cycle and not lose much more intensity this weekend. After that time, overall environmental conditions only gradually become less conducive. These factors suggest a slow decay of the cyclone then, although there is considerable uncertainty since the intensity guidance is rather divergent by long range. There has not been any significant change to the intensity consensus and, given the uncertainties, the new forecast is kept nearly the same as the old one. The initial motion estimate is 290/11. So far Jimena has been a well-behaved cyclone as the subtropical ridge has provided a steady steering current. This ridge is forecast to remain firm for the next few days, keeping the west-northwestward motion in place. Around the time Jimena reaches the central Pacific, it should slow down considerably due to a weakening of the subtropical ridge, which could allow a turn to the northwest by the end of the period. However, the bulk of guidance keep the hurricane moving slowly west-northwestward through day 5, with some outliers. No significant changes were made to the latest NHC prediction since the model consensus is very close to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 13.7N 128.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.3N 130.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 15.1N 132.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 15.8N 135.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 17.2N 140.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 17.9N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 18.5N 143.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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