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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-08-30 16:41:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301441 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 Infrared satellite images and a recent GCOM microwave pass indicate that there is still some evidence of a double eyewall structure. The southern portion of Jimena's inner eyewall has eroded a little during the past few hours, causing a slightly asymmetric presentation. The initial wind speed is maintained at 115 kt, based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, though it is possible that Jimena could be a little less intense. The atmospheric environment is expected to remain conducive for Jimena to remain a strong cyclone for the next several days as the SHIPS model shows the wind shear remaining less than 10 kt. The only negative environmental factor is cooler water with lower oceanic heat content along the expected track. Most of the guidance shows a slow decay of the hurricane during the next several days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows that theme. This forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. Jimena is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north and northeast. This general motion is expected to persist for another day or two. After that time, the hurricane is expected to decelerate in response to weakening steering currents caused by an amplifying trough extending southwestward from the western United States. The new track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to come in better agreement with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 129.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 15.6N 134.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 16.2N 136.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 16.8N 138.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 17.7N 140.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 142.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 19.2N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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