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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-08-30 22:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302037 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 After Jimena's cloud pattern appeared somewhat ragged this morning, it has recently become more symmetric and better organized. The latest infrared images indicate that a ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C surround the center, and the eye has increased in diameter and become more distinct. The larger eye suggests that eyewall replacement could now be complete, and this is likely the reason why the hurricane has begun to re-intensify. Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from SAB and 6.5/127 kt from TAFB, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value between these two estimates. Based on the latest appearance of Jimena, the initial wind speed is set near the high end of the estimates at 125 kt. As mentioned in previous discussions, Jimena is expected to remain in a low wind shear environment for the next several days. However, the cyclone is expected to track over progressively cooler water, which should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken. The official intensity forecast shows some short-term strengthening, following the current trend, and then predicts a slow decay. This forecast is higher than all of the guidance during the next day or so, but falls in line with the SHIPS model from 36-120 h. Jimena is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, 295/13 kt. This motion is expected to continue for about 24 hours while a subtropical ridge remains to the north and northeast of the cyclone. After that time, Jimena is forecast to decelerate as steering currents weaken in response to an amplifying trough extending southwestward from the western United States. There was little change in the latest model guidance, and the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This forecast lies close to the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.7N 130.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 15.2N 133.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.6N 137.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 17.1N 138.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.0N 141.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 19.8N 143.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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