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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-08-31 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310856 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 Jimena has maintained a symmetric very cold CDO with a well-defined 25 n mi diameter eye. A 0307Z SSMIS pass indicated that a concentric eyewall structure was in place with a secondary eyewall located about 30-40 n mi from the center. A blend of subjective TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications along with UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique are the basis for Jimena's 130-kt intensity. Currently, Jimena is over warm 28 deg C water and is embedded in weak northerly vertical shear conditions. While these should favor continuing an extreme intensity, the mid-level moisture is somewhat dry and the atmosphere not very unstable for deep convection. During the next few days, the SSTs should gradually cool while the vertical shear should gradually increase as Jimena moves west-northwestward. Complicating the forecast is the possibility that Jimena may undergo another concentric eyewall cycle, with short-term weakening followed by possible reintensification. However, such variations are difficult to precisely predict. The intensity forecast is nearly the same as from the previous advisory and is closest to the statistical SHIPS model from 12 to 36 hours, and is close to the IVCN consensus technique thereafter. Jimena is moving quickly toward the west-northwest at 15 kt, primarily through the steering induced by a deep-layer ridge to its north. The ridge should weaken and become oriented northwest-to-southeast during the next couple of days. This should result in Jimena turning toward the northwest at a slower rate of speed. The forecast track is nearly identical to the previous advisory and is based upon the very tightly packed consensus of the skillful dynamical models. Jimena's wind radii were significantly adjusted outward based upon an 0216Z CIRA AMSU pass and an 0536Z partial ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 15.3N 133.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 15.7N 135.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 16.3N 137.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 18.5N 142.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.5N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 20.5N 144.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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