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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-08-31 16:45:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 311445 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 Jimena continues to be a powerful hurricane. Recent microwave data and infrared satellite images suggest that the system still has concentric eyewalls. The eye of the hurricane remains distinct and has a diameter of about 20 n mi, and the convective pattern is slightly asymmetric with cloud tops slightly warmer west of the eye. Satellite intensity estimates were all 6.5 on the Dvorak scale, therefore, the initial wind speed remains 130 kt. The hurricane is now moving westward at about 14 kt steered by a mid-level high pressure system to the north of the cyclone. This ridge is expected to break down during the next couple of days while a trough deepens near the west coast of the United States. This pattern evolution should weaken the steering currents for Jimena, causing a gradual slow down and a turn to the northwest during the next several days. The track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous track forecast. The new NHC track prediction lies close to the various consensus aids. Jimena is expected to more or less maintain its intensity during the next day or so while it remains over 28 deg C water and in a very low wind shear environment. Fluctuations in strength are possible during that time due to the ongoing eyewall cycles. After that time, a slow weakening is expected while water temperatures lower along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast lies on the high side of the guidance and is a little above the previous intensity forecast, giving some weight to the global models which maintain a very strong cyclone for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 15.6N 135.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.0N 137.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.6N 138.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 17.3N 140.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 141.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.9N 142.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.9N 143.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 20.9N 143.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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