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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-08-31 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 312034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 Jimena continues to exhibit a concentric eyewall structure around a 20 n mi diameter eye. The cloud tops have warmed a little during the past few hours, and the overall satellite presentation is not quite as impressive as it was several hours ago. The Dvorak Final T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased slightly, and the initial wind speed is lowered a little to 125 kt. The hurricane is still moving westward at about 14 kt, which is a little faster than previously predicted. A mid-level high pressure system located to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue to steer Jimena west-northwestward in the short term, but this ridge is expected to weaken during the next day or two in response to an amplification of a mid- to upper- level trough extending southwestward from the western United States. This pattern change should cause the steering currents around Jimena to weaken, resulting in a gradual northwestward turn with a dramatic decrease in forward speed after 48 hours. The track model guidance has shifted a little to the left and is slightly faster than earlier, and the new NHC track forecast follows that theme. Jimena is likely to fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours while it remains embedded in a very low wind shear environment and over 28 deg C waters. After that time, a slow weakening is expected while SSTs decrease along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and remains on the high side of the intensity guidance, giving some weight to the global models which maintain a very strong cyclone for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 15.9N 136.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 16.4N 138.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.1N 140.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.6N 141.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.2N 142.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.2N 143.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.2N 144.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 21.6N 144.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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