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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-09-01 16:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011438 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with evidence of erosion of Jimena's inner eyewall in the southern portion. Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the weakening trend that has commenced. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on the SHIPS model and the HWRF. The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt. Jimena has made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge. A subsequent turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by the 48 hour period and through the end of the period. The NHC forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus. Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center. Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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