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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-08-28 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281432 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Rapid intensification of Jimena continues this morning. Microwave data has shown an eye beneath the central dense overcast, and a more definitive eye is just now becoming apparent in infrared satellite imagery. With subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.6/80 kt from UW-CIMSS, Jimena's initial intensity is raised to 80 kt. Jimena is expected to remain in an environment of low shear and over warm water for the duration of the forecast period. Mid-level moisture is high at the moment and is expected to only gradually decrease during the next 2 to 3 days. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is showing a 54 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. Therefore, a continuation of RI appears likely and is explicitly shown in the NHC intensity forecast. A peak intensity is expected in about 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening through day 5 due to a slightly drier environment and lower oceanic heat content values. The updated NHC intensity forecast is generally a blend of the previous forecast with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. It should be noted that once Jimena reaches its peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in intensity that deviate from the official forecast are likely due to possible eyewall replacements. Jimena appears to have slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is 270/10 kt. The hurricane remains to the south of an anomalously strong ridge that extends southwestward from the southwestern United States, and this feature is expected to keep Jimena on a westward course for the next 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken, which will allow Jimena to turn west-northwestward through day 5. The track guidance remains in good agreement and very close to the previous forecast. Therefore, no significant changes are noted in the updated NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 12.4N 122.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 12.4N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 12.6N 125.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.1N 129.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 17.0N 138.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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