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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-08-28 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282031 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 A distinct eye cleared out in both visible and infrared satellite imagery around 1800 UTC, and convective cloud tops surrounding the eye are as cold as -75 degrees Celsius. Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt from SAB at 1800 UTC, and the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T5.4/100 kt. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 90 kt on this advisory. Jimena continues to rapidly intensify, with the intensity having increased by 35-40 kt in the past 24 hours. The environment near Jimena remains conducive for further strengthening. Low shear and very warm ocean water could allow rapid intensification to continue, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is showing a 43 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. Based on the latest statistical-dynamical guidance, a peak in intensity is likely to occur between 36 and 48 hours. After that time, a slightly drier air mass and decreasing oceanic heat content should lead to a gradual weakening through day 5. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance, which have performed better than the dynamical guidance with Jimena's strengthening. As was noted earlier today, once Jimena reaches its peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in intensity that deviate from the official forecast are likely due to possible eyewall replacements. Jimena is still moving westward, or 270/10 kt. The strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to weaken within 24 hours, which should allow Jimena to turn west-northwestward by this time tomorrow. This trajectory should then continue through day 5. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, although the GFS and the ECMWF shifted a bit northeastward on this cycle and lie near the edge of the guidance envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast lies slightly right of and a little slower than the previous forecast through 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 12.3N 123.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 12.4N 124.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 12.9N 126.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 13.7N 128.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 14.6N 130.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 16.2N 135.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 17.2N 138.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 17.7N 140.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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