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Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 23
2024-10-05 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 49.8W ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1610 MI...2585 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 49.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible overnight, but steady weakening should begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 23
2024-10-05 04:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050231 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.8W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 180SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.8W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 49.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.9N 50.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.2N 49.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.9N 48.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.7N 44.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 260SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.2N 32.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 45.4N 14.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 270SE 240SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 50.6N 1.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 240SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-05 01:47:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 042346 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98): A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Atmospheric conditions are becoming less conducive and further development is not expected as the low moves slowly northward and northeastward over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the weekend or early part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week while the system drifts slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics