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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-09-08 16:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081434 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 The satellite presentation of Linda has improved this morning, with an eye becoming apparent in infrared imagery. Dvorak satellite classifications were T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have increased to T5.9/112 kt. The initial intensity is set conservatively to 105 kt given the rapid change in the satellite presentation and the variation seen in the definition of the eye in recent images. This makes Linda the fifth major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin this year. It would appear that Linda is peaking in intensity now, as the cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a drier more stable environment over the next several days. Slow weakening is forecast today, followed by more rapid weakening due to the above-mentioned unfavorable factors. The new NHC forecast is higher than the previous one through 24 hours to account for the initial intensity, but is similar to the previous official forecast after that time. Linda should become a remnant low in about 3 days over very cool waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Linda has been moving a little faster during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of 335/12. The tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest later today under the influence of a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. The remnant low is then forecast to turn west-northwestward and westward by the end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The track model guidance has continued to shift toward the right this cycle, and is also a bit faster. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to account for those trends, and now lies on the left side of the guidance envelope, between the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. The analyzed 12-ft seas radii were increased based on data from a recent Jason-2 satellite altimeter pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 23.7N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 25.0N 117.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 26.1N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 27.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 27.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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