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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-08 22:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082039 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015 Linda still has an impressive satellite presentation, and appears to have peaked shortly after the last advisory was issued. A distinct eye in infrared imagery is surrounded by a CDO with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80C. The initial intensity is set to 110 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimate of T5.5/102 kt from SAB and T6.0/115 kt from TAFB. The 34-kt wind radii were adjusted outward based on an ASCAT-B pass around 1700 UTC. Linda will be crossing the 27C SST isotherm soon, and the cyclone should begin to slowly weaken. Rapid weakening is expected between 24 and 48 hours as the cyclone moves over much cooler SSTs and into a stable, dry environment. Remnant low status is forecast by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the latest intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 325/12, as Linda has wobbled a bit to the left of the previous track. The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as a weakening Linda should move northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. The remnant low is then forecast to turn west- northwestward and westward by the end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to account for the initial motion through 36 hours, and is largely an update of the previous NHC track after that time. The NHC forecast continues to lie on the left side of the guidance envelope, between the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus. Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 21.9N 114.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.0N 115.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.4N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.6N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 26.5N 119.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.4N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 27.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 27.5N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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